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Barry Brook
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 Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Thread Started on May 31, 2012, 5:12pm »
[Quote]

A new guest post by Tom Blees has been published on BraveNewClimate. Link here: http://bravenewclimate.com/roads-not-taken-yet

It describes the political roadblocks that have been faced in getting the Integral Fast Reactor built in the U.S., and the likely future road. It's actually extremely promising. This recent further announcement from the UK bolsters this viewpoint: University to support PRISM promotion

This BNC Discussion Forum thread is for the comments related to this BNC post.
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There's no 'silver bullet' for solving the climate and energy crises. The bullets are made of depleted uranium and thorium...
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #1 on May 31, 2012, 8:39pm »
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Tom Blees says, "History will not likely judge them kindly"...

I am inclined to think that each of us must stand before our Ghosts of Christmas Future. How will we answer the voice of our conscience, what did we do when there was time to act?

However the miscreants that Tom refers to were authorities responsible to make decisions for the good of all. They, at least, could be made to stand like Eichmann in his show trial, to face the testimonies of the survivors of mass deaths caused by their actions and inactions.

The current International Laws on Crimes against Humanity may suffice for the purpose. However we may need a more explicit International Law on Crimes against the Climate. Whereas the Nuremberg Trials took place as dawn rose at the end of World War II, any future trials for Crimes against the Climate will take place as the sun sets over the climate we knew.

That day might be brought forward if lawyers against climate change were to frame International Laws under which decision-makers could be tried. Then, as public concern rises at the growing rate of climatic disasters and ratifies the Laws, outrage could be focused in trials in International Courts where professionally spun denials have no weight.
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Anon
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #2 on Jun 1, 2012, 10:48am »
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These comments I am quoting were made at the blog post.

Frank R. Eggers:
It took the railroads years of experience to determine that Diesel locomotives should replace steam locomotives. Similarly, it could take a while to identify the best nuclear technology. We’ve already made a mistake by deploying only PWRs. Let us not repeat the mistake by limiting ourselves to only one nuclear technology before we have had sufficient experience to know which is the best nuclear technology.
We also have BWRs and CANDUs so it isn't just PWRs. MSRs (using both Fluoride and Chloride salts) look like the best nuclear for most purposes though HTGRs might be better for process heat if we can't run MSRs as hot and we'll probably be looking at gas core or even fission fragment for rocketry but it does make sense to have a backup (at the very least a plutonium breeder is good to have in case we need to use all that Uranium in the oceans).

Asteroid Miner:
DU is NOT radioactive.
Yes it is, it isn't very radioactive (less radioactive than natural U) but it's still radioactive.

Asteroid Miner:
My guess is that since uranium is pyrophoric, it starts a fire, causing secondary explosions of ammo stored in the tank.
Here I was thinking that it was the pyrophoric properties causing the projectile to self-sharpen as it goes through the armour (thus actually getting through where any other material would deform and stop).

AP ammo, at least the stuff fired from tank guns (as opposed to what comes out of one of the SGC's P90s), has an explosive charge at the back of the shell which is meant to detonate once it has penetrated the armour.

MisterDTV:
Our sights need to be on Fusion!
Fusion should be researched (I'd even support funding ITER even if I thought it wouldn't lead to anything practical like a power plant or rocket engine (rocketry is where fusion has its best chance at beating fission)) but fission can do the job we need done and seems to have enough growth to be a workable solution for quite a bit of time (thousands of years at significantly higher energy usage rates than present is pretty much guaranteed).

Zachary Moitoza:
Nuclear power will do nothing to phase out fossil fuels.
Then what will?

Besides, that'd be like saying "Petroleum will do nothing to save the whales" at the time when whale oil was being used for heating and lighting (i.e. just before fossil fuels saved the whales).

Zachary Moitoza:
I suggest you research Jevons Paradox.
We are well aware of Jevons paradox around here (it's one of the big reasons why energy efficiency as the solution to global warming is dangerous policy).

One other thing worth understanding about Jevons paradox is that even if the efficiency increase causes more of a resource to be used it is still a good thing because we're doing more.

It's also worth noting that Jevons paradox only sometimes applies (i.e. it is quite possible to increase efficiency of using a resource and reduce use of that resource, though even there you don't usually reduce it's use as much as would be naïvely expected).

Zachary Moitoza:
Even as we become many times more efficient, fossil fuel use continues apace. This is because the efficiency just goes to more growth. The same is true for nuclear. Even with our nuclear plants doubling output since the 1990s, fossil fuel use continued apace. All the nuclear did was go to more growth.
Never mind that some countries have reduced their fossil fuel use significantly from nuclear power.

Zachary Moitoza:
Fossil fuels are like magic, and if we use less the price collapses, like in 2009 when the economy shrank, and then the low price spurrs their use.
This is where your argument falls down in that you don't factor in the cost of production, fossil fuel companies can't stay in business if they are selling at a loss.

All we need to do to get rid of fossil fuels from electricity production is make nuclear energy cheaper and solve the political problems which hold nuclear back (and I contend that a large part of making nuclear cheaper is to solve the political problem).

Zachary Moitoza:
As long as all our politicians want more growth, nuclear won’t reduce fossil use, it will just create more growth.
It isn't just the politicians who want growth, it's their employers, i.e. the public.

We want our lives to get better (and for our children and grandchildren to have better lives as well) which requires growth.

Zachary Moitoza:
Just think of the economy this way: energy in, garbage out. So, nuclear would just create more garbage. Who wants more overconsumption, more obesity, bigger homes, population growth? Who wants that?
So you're one of those then?

It would be more accurate to say: energy in, work out (for energy is the ability to do work).

On the issue of who wants more consumption (overconsumption to you, but not to everyone), it appears the majority does and in a democracy we get our way.

Zachary Moitoza:
At 3 percent economic growth, energy consumption increases by a factor of 16 in 93 years. All we can do is wait a few decades for peak oil, peak coal, peak gas, and peak uranium to put growth in its tracks, and force us to end population growth and transition to a steady-state society.
There is enough Uranium to sustain 10 billion people at Qatar's per capita energy consumption for the next ten thousand years so peak uranium is just utter crap. I would also tend to say about peak oil, coal and methane that I wish they were true but that the evidence indicates otherwise (there's plenty of fossil fuels in Antarctica for example).

Besides, if you think we need to end population growth, how do you plan to do it?

Zachary Moitoza:
The U.S. will be using half the fossil fuels by 2025. We will be living like the Amish by 2040, which is when we can start rolling out the fast reactors and return to growth, and rebuild civilization. Trust me, this is the only way.
Why should we trust someone so obviously wrong?

A more realistic assessment is that the US will start moving to nuclear in the 2020s once people finally learn the most important lesson of both Chernobyl and Fukushima (i.e. that the anti-nuclear movement is more dangerous than nuclear power).

Zachary Moitoza:
The peaks means that global warming can’t exceed 450 ppm, so the planet won’t become uninhabitable, and we will avoid the worst of climate change.
That would require you to have estimated when we will run out accurately which is not something people estimating when non-renewable resources will run out of have a good record at.

Zachary Moitoza:
We can’t rely on our politicians to do the right thing, and they are forcing all this population growth and economic growth upon us, and will do everything they can to keep the status quo.
No, actually it's the public forcing economic growth on the politicians (and you don't seem to know much about population growth if you think it's happening in a big way in prosperous countries).

Zachary Moitoza:
Only a couple of decades of steadily increasing economic contraction and job loss will teach people that there are limits to growth, and teach people to live within population and economic limits.
How anyone can claim limits to growth exist in an infinite universe and expect to be taken seriously is a mystery.

Besides, Malthusians have been proven wrong so many times throughout history you'd think people would learn that we humans are good at overcoming limits.

Zachary Moitoza:
We already have 313 million in the U.S., do you want to see it reach a billion? That is where we’re heading, and this must come to an end.
The US population won't be reaching a billion any time soon.

Zachary Moitoza:
Admiral Hyman G. Rickover gave a speech in 1957 about how only the breeder would work,
In the long term we'll need a breeder but it's worth noting that he started out in nuclear at a time when we didn't know how much Uranium there was (people thought there was a lot less than there is) and was under the impression that the nuclear submarine programme along with any civilian power programmes would have to compete with other possible uses (including nuclear weapons) for scarce fuel (which would certainly justify making your reactors use as little of it as possible, thus anything which could be a breeder should be).

Of course then there's the fact that the S2W wasn't a breeder and worked pretty well.

Zachary Moitoza:
but then he became very antinuclear in the 1980s,
Rickover seemed to be something of a control freak who thought that the Navy nuclear programmed had to be run by him to be run well.

Zachary Moitoza:
If we went with the IFR now, it would kill us all,
There is no evidence of that (in fact the evidence indicates that the IFR would be safer than current nuclear, which is already the safest way to generate electricity).

Zachary Moitoza:
just a billion people going on hundred mile a day commutes, living in mcmansions out in the middle of nowhere,
If people think that's better than the alternative of living in a high-rise apartment where they can't even watch a movie at night without upsetting the person in the unit next door (or above or below them) then that's their choice to make, not yours (and 160 km commutes are quite rare, woudln't surprise me if most people with commutes that distance spend most of it on a high-speed train).

Zachary Moitoza:
I think that by 2040 the U.S. population will be 250 million,
How many are going to have to die to get there?

Zachary Moitoza:
and we will be living in villages, and growing our own food, and living without electricity, and be happier as a result.
Highly doubtful, you just don't have a very realistic idea of what life would be like in that case (it would not be planting some crops and then going off to play, it'd be back-breaking work everyday just to stay alive and you're always one bad harvest away from starvation).

Zachary Moitoza:
Trust me, nature will solve itself. The situation is non-negotiable, and the infinite growth paradigm that has been killing us all is coming to an end, non-negotiabally. I suggest you pick up a copy of the new “End of Growth” books by Heinberg and Rubin, or check out Chris Martenson and Al Bartlett. Regards, Zachary
People have been saying that for a long time and yet none of them have been right, why should I believe you to be any different?
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davidm
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #3 on Jun 2, 2012, 12:02am »
[Quote]


Jun 1, 2012, 10:48am, Anon wrote:

Zachary Moitoza:
As long as all our politicians want more growth, nuclear won’t reduce fossil use, it will just create more growth.


He's got a point. As long as we are in growth mode nuclear will always be playing catchup with fossil fuel. To see how that works check future projections for China, the state most committed to nuclear power.


Quote:
Zachary Moitoza:
Trust me, nature will solve itself. The situation is non-negotiable, and the infinite growth paradigm that has been killing us all is coming to an end, non-negotiabally. I suggest you pick up a copy of the new “End of Growth” books by Heinberg and Rubin, or check out Chris Martenson and Al Bartlett. Regards, Zachary


People have been saying that for a long time and yet none of them have been right, why should I believe you to be any different?

You don't destroy a biological law of gravity by a 250 year fossil fuel driven window of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #4 on Jun 2, 2012, 9:42am »
[Quote]


Jun 2, 2012, 12:02am, davidm wrote:
He's got a point. As long as we are in growth mode nuclear will always be playing catchup with fossil fuel. To see how that works check future projections for China, the state most committed to nuclear power.
That assumes we can't build nuclear power plants as fast as demand grows (it would also require that France not have actually largely replaced fossil fuels in their electricity grid).

In all likelihood we can indeed build one reactor a day (the global peak was 30 a year and there's no evidence we were near the limit).


Jun 2, 2012, 12:02am, davidm wrote:
You don't destroy a biological law of gravity by a 250 year fossil fuel driven window of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.
It hasn't even been proven to be a law like gravity.

If you look at history you'd have a better case for saying that Malthusian predictions being wrong is a law.
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davidm
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #5 on Jun 2, 2012, 5:39pm »
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MODERATOR
Comment deleted.
Violation of the citation rule being that you have read and understood the material you quote. The points you make did not appear in the blog post and you used a critique by someone else and subsequently assumed you know why a course of action was taken which also violates the rule regarding assigning motive. If you wish to comment on parts of the the book "Prescription for the Planet" please read the book and compose your own critique based on that reading and submit it as a new thread.
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Frank Eggers
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #6 on Jun 2, 2012, 5:58pm »
[Quote]

I read Mr. Blees' book over a year ago, so I may have forgotten parts of it. However, I seem to recall that he did not consider the liquid fluoride thorium reactor (LFTR) which I see as promising, although whether it is the best possible solution has yet to be determined. LFTRs would just about eliminate the possibility of the proliferation of weapons material, which I see as a significant advantage. Obviously many reactor technologies are possible. I hope that all the promising ones will be considered so that the best ones will be implemented. Like many others, I see our pressurized water reactors as significantly less than the best possible, although still an improvement over coal.

Using sodium cooled reactors makes me uneasy for obvious reasons. There has been talk of using molten lead for cooling, but I don't feel qualified to know how practical that would be. At least sodium cooling would be better than potassium cooling!
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #7 on Jun 2, 2012, 7:49pm »
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The main weakness of the fast reactor program has been the sodium coolant. If the scientists and engineers cannot accept it, they are no better than the politicians and businessmen they blame for not taking the road. Sodium has literally burnt a lot of fingers.
Russian lead coolant is better but they are also diversifying to sodium.
It is necessary to find a better coolant. The responsibility lies with Russia, India and China who are bravely battling on. The solution may lie with lead metal or a salt eutectic and the coatings to protect the container metal against corrosion.
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #8 on Jun 2, 2012, 8:50pm »
[Quote]


Jun 2, 2012, 5:58pm, Frank Eggers wrote:
Obviously many reactor technologies are possible. I hope that all the promising ones will be considered so that the best ones will be implemented.
From an academic point of view that's exactly what is happening, but I'd be surprised if more than a few designs make it into a real world test bed reactor (actual hardware construction does cost money and we do need to spend what money we can get on the most promising technologies, not just on trying everything and seeing how they each work out).


Jun 2, 2012, 5:58pm, Frank Eggers wrote:
Like many others, I see our pressurized water reactors as significantly less than the best possible, although still an improvement over coal.
Even an RBMK is an improvement on coal (and current reactors are good enough to tide us over until we get Gen IV).


Jun 2, 2012, 5:58pm, Frank Eggers wrote:
Using sodium cooled reactors makes me uneasy for obvious reasons.
Something else could be better but with sufficient care in design and operation it can be used safely (and does have it's own advantages over water, not being under high pressure for one).

But still, we'd need quite a bit more work to be done on it before it'd be ready for large scale deployment (and I suspect that molten salts are going to be better, even for fast spectrum (though there hasn't been much work on chlorides)).


Jun 2, 2012, 5:58pm, Frank Eggers wrote:
There has been talk of using molten lead for cooling, but I don't feel qualified to know how practical that would be.
It'll work, the Soviets used it for some submarine reactors (and had quite a bit of trouble with them, but we are talking about Soviet submarine reactors here).

Bismuth is also workable (though it expands on freezing which the engineers designing any such reactor are going to have to deal with) and can also be mixed with lead for a lower melting point (though still quite a bit above room temperature).

Lead and bismuth are somewhat more corrosive to structural metals than sodium but proper material choice could deal with that.

I should also note that the US investigated the possibility of dissolving Uranium in bismuth as a fluid fuel reactor (though it lost out to the MSR).


Jun 2, 2012, 5:58pm, Frank Eggers wrote:
At least sodium cooling would be better than potassium cooling!
NaK has one important advantage, namely that it is liquid at room temperature.

Though looking at neutron absorption cross-sections Rubidium and Caesium seem like they'd work. :-P


Jun 2, 2012, 7:49pm, jagdish wrote:
The main weakness of the fast reactor program has been the sodium coolant. If the scientists and engineers cannot accept it, they are no better than the politicians and businessmen they blame for not taking the road. Sodium has literally burnt a lot of fingers.
Pity Galinstan doesn't have better nuclear properties.

Oh and I'm sure fire burnt a lot of fingers when humans first discovered it and there were a lot of boiler explosions in the early days of steam engines, what sodium reactors have done is pretty mild in comparison.


Jun 2, 2012, 7:49pm, jagdish wrote:
Russian lead coolant is better but they are also diversifying to sodium.
The Russian sodium cooled reactors have actually had a pretty decent record.


Jun 2, 2012, 7:49pm, jagdish wrote:
It is necessary to find a better coolant.
Such as?


Jun 2, 2012, 7:49pm, jagdish wrote:
The solution may lie with lead metal or a salt eutectic and the coatings to protect the container metal against corrosion.
I'm going to suggest Plutonium as the coolant as used in the LAMPRE (as part of a eutectic).

Ultimately though I'd be putting the R&D towards chloride salts for fast spectrum stuff if I could only pick one to fund.
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #9 on Jun 4, 2012, 6:17pm »
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Cl35 absorbs neutrons to form problem isotopes. Ion separation of Cl37, which is nearly a quarter of natural Cl will be required, Fortunately, HCl and CH3Cl are fit for centrifugal enrichment.
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #10 on Jun 4, 2012, 6:48pm »
[Quote]


Jun 4, 2012, 6:17pm, jagdish wrote:
Cl35 absorbs neutrons to form problem isotopes. Ion[?] separation of Cl37, which is nearly a quarter of natural Cl will be required, Fortunately, HCl and CH3Cl are fit for centrifugal enrichment.
That is an issue which chloride reactors will need to deal with but probably won't be that big an issue given the mass difference and benign nature of HCl and CH3Cl compared to some of the stuff used in Uranium enrichment (and the third most common power reactor design today already uses isotope separation for its moderator).

The possibility of chloride salts being more corrosive than fluoride salts (maybe it's certainly and the possibility is we can't deal with them) and the faster reactivity changes which come from fast spectrum (remembering that fluid fuel reactors don't have delayed neutrons) are much more likely to turn out to be show stoppers.
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #11 on Jun 4, 2012, 10:30pm »
[Quote]

Good discussion here, apologies for a slight sidetrack - an attempt to procrastinate while working on a research paper :).


Jun 1, 2012, 10:48am, Anon wrote:


Asteroid Miner:
My guess is that since uranium is pyrophoric, it starts a fire, causing secondary explosions of ammo stored in the tank.


Here I was thinking that it was the pyrophoric properties causing the projectile to self-sharpen as it goes through the armour (thus actually getting through where any other material would deform and stop).



It's actually (or at least according to my old materials science professor) due to a phenomenon called adiabatic shear, which in this case basically means that when DU penetrator round hits the target, it doesn't deform and "mushroom" as much as most other alloys. Instead, it sheds the "mushroomed" part quicker. It's not really what you'd call "self sharpening," but it does slightly increase the penetrative power. Apparently, though, the increase is not that significant.


Quote:
AP ammo, at least the stuff fired from tank guns (as opposed to what comes out of one of the SGC's P90s), has an explosive charge at the back of the shell which is meant to detonate once it has penetrated the armor.


Nope. They are called "kinetic energy" rounds for a reason: the impact delivers enough energy to the target to cause catastrophic damage in case of penetration (and sometimes even without a full penetration, due to an effect called "spalling," where white-hot pieces of armor from inside the vehicle are knocked loose at bullet velocities).

Some KE rounds have a tracer element to help observe the fall of the shot, but this doesn't add anything worthwhile to the round's destructive powers. It's the 10-14 megajoules of kinetic energy delivered on 20-30 mm diameter impact area that does the trick. Whatever is in the way that is flammable (including tank crews) will ignite.

It is my understanding that the primary reason DU has been used has been its very low cost, being essentially free. The second reason has been its high density, which means slightly improved capability at longer ranges. Slight self-sharpening and pyrophoric properties are at best a bonus; it's the design of the penetrator that has more effect than the material. (I believe this is in evidence in the relatively poor performance of earlier Russian DU rounds.)

Of modern 120 mm tank gun KE rounds, only the U.S. M829A3 uses a DU penetrator, all the others have tungsten carbide "rods." See e.g.

http://defense-update.com/products/digits/120ke.htm

I say, better to burn DU in IFRs than to shoot it around the countryside...
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 Re: Roads Not Taken (yet)
« Reply #12 on Jun 10, 2012, 9:50pm »
[Quote]

The kinetic energy rounds have more kinetic energy per unit cross section than other rounds and damage the target with it. DU with high specific gravity and moderate cost has been accordingly selected.
There is enough DU round the world (more than a million tons!) to think about preserving it for IFR yet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depleted_uranium
To take up the IFR road to energy, you have to deal with two main problems:-
1. A safe, non corrosive coolant/container interface for heat transfer.
2. The most economic system to get rid of neutron gobbling fission products.
They have not been mastered on an industrial scale yet.
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